CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Danilo)…which is located approximately 468 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia, in the South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 09P (Imogen)…which is located approximately 283 NM west of Cairns, Australia – Final Warning
South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Danilo)Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 60 knot winds…with gusts to 75 knots (as of Warning Number 10) According to the JTWC…TC 08S is undergoing Fujiwara interaction with the remnants of invest 93S, which has weakened and is currently rotating cyclonically along the western flank of TC 08S. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts two discrete areas of deep convection: the eastern, larger area of expanding convection obscuring TC Danilo’s low level circulation center and a smaller, more linear area of flaring convection associated with the remnants of invest 93S. Upper-level analysis reveals a generally favorable environment with low vertical wind shear, good equatorward and poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures. However, the absorption of invest 93S is likely hindering development. In general, there is now moderate uncertainty with improved agreement in the model trackers and a near-complete Fujiwara interaction with the remnants of invest 93S…lending moderate confidence to the JTWC track and intensity forecast. Near 24 hours, invest 93s will get fully absorbed into TC 08S, allowing TC 08S to accelerate westward through 96 hours. After 96 hours, a broad trough will deepen east-southeast of Madagascar, which will produce a more westward to west-southwestward track. TC 08S is expected to weaken slowly through 24 hours, although intensify steadily after 48 hours, as environmental conditions improve. Improved poleward venting associated with the aforementioned trough will lead to a period of significant intensification after 72 hours… with a peak intensity of 80 knots anticipated at 120 hours. Tropical Cyclone 09P (Imogen) – Final Warning
Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 2) According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts strong flaring convection displaced to the southwest of the assessed low level circulation center. Animated radar data indicates that TC 09P made landfall near Karumba, Australia at 031200z. Over the next 24 hours the system will continue to track slowly inland while steadily weakening and is expected to fully dissipating as a tropical cyclone over the southern Cape York Peninsula no later than 24 hours.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)