CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 12S (Eloise) is located 290 NM west-northwest of Europa Island…in the South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 13S is located 1089 NM west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia…in the South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 14S is located 118 NM east-northeast of Port Hedland, Australia…in the South Indian Ocean – Final Warning
 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 12S (Eloise)
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/12S_221800sair.jpg
Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 75 knot winds…with gusts to 90 knots (as of Warning Number 12) According to the JTWC…reveals the system has spiral bands wrapping into an elongated low level circulation center. Upper level analysis indicates a favorable environment with low wind shear, robust equatorward outflow and moderate poleward outflow…with warm sea surface temperatures. The limiting factor is the system’s sustained interaction with land over the northwestern quadrant. TC 12S is forecast to weaken to 55 knots by 12 hours as it moves inland into Mozambique. The system is large with extensive deep moisture and should bring heavy rainfall as it tracks inland after 06 hours…with dissipation by 48 hours. Tropical Cyclone 13S https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/13S_230000sair.jpg Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 5) According to the JTWC…reveals deep convection sheared over the western quadrant of the struggling system due to strong 30-40 knot easterly wind shear. Surface observations from the Cocos islands, 70 NM north-northwest of the current center, indicate sustained winds of 25-30 knots with gusts as high as 41 knots. The strong wind shear is offset by fair equatorward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures. TC 13S is expected to track slowly southward along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge through 48 hours. After 48 hours, the system should turn gradually westward as a ridge builds to the south. TC 13S should slowly intensify after 36 hours, as wind shear decreases, with a peak of 45 knots anticipated by 72 hours. Slight weakening is expected in the extended hours, as the system encounters increasing southeasterly low-level flow and slightly cooler sea surface temperatures.   Tropical Cyclone 14S – Final Warning
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/14S_220000sair.jpg Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 2) According to the JTWC…satellite imagery indicates the system has peaked and is on a weakening trend, with deep cycling convection being sheared to the south…and partially obscuring the low level circulation center. Animated radar data from the Broome and Port Hedland radars indicated a very weak rotation crossing the shore near Sandfire, Australia, TC 14S is in the process of making landfall along the northwest coast of Australia, and will continue tracking inland along the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge centered to the east. The system will steadily, but slowly, weaken over the Great Sandy desert and dissipate as a tropical cyclone by 36 hours, though remnants of the system are expected to continue tracking inland into west-central Australia.   Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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