CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 12S (Eloise) is located 262 NM northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar…in the South Indian Ocean
 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 12S (Eloise)
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/12S_191800sair.jpg
Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 6) According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center with deep convection wrapping around the northern and eastern quadrants. Environmental analysis reveals an overall moderately favorable environment characterized by good equatorward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures, offset by low to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear. TC12S is forecast to track generally southwestward throughout the forecast period under the steering influence of a subtropical ridge positioned to the southeast. In the near term, TC 12S is expected to make landfall in northeastern Madagascar by 12 hours, then slowly weaken to 30 knots as it transits across the rugged island terrain before exiting over the Mozambique Channel near 54 hours. The warm waters of the Mozambique Channel will enable TC 12S to steadily re-intensify to 70 knots prior to making final landfall near Maxixe in Southern Mozambique.     https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/92S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210119.181000.SH922021.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.20kts.100p0.1p0.jpg There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92S, which is located approximately 361 NM northwest of Darwin, Australia Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows an overall lack of circulation and convective structure associated with the system. Environmental analysis shows a favorable environment for development, with low <15 knot wind shear, poleward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures. Global models are in good agreement that invest 92S will track poleward southwestward as it consolidates and strengthens. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.   https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/93S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210119.181000.SH932021.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.20kts.100p0.1p0.jpg There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 437 NM east of Cocos Island, Australia Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows lower level banding with convection obscuring the low level circulation center. Environmental analysis shows a favorable environment for development, with low <15 knot wind shear, poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures. Global models are in good agreement that invest 93S will track westward as it consolidates and strengthens. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
 
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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