Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 4) According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows the central convection has slightly warmed up, however, rain bands continue to tightly wrap into the low-level circulation that is partly obscured by the convection. Environmental analysis indicates a favorable environment with strong radial outflow and warm sea surface temperatures, offset by moderate 15-20 knot wind shear. TC 12S is forecast to track generally southwestward through the forecast period, making landfall over northeastern Madagascar by 18 hours.

It will drag across the island, then exit into the Mozambique Channel around 66 hours, and by 120 hours will be poised to make a final landfall into southern Mozambique north of Maxixe.

The rugged Madagascar terrain will weaken the cyclone to 30 knots by 48 hours, however, after it exits into the warm Mozambique Channel, it will gradually re-intensify to 60 knots before final landfall.

Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 8) According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows the system continues to unravel, as the associated convection has sheared further southeastward from the ragged low level circulation center…that has become nearly stationary. Analysis indicates the system is under relative wind shear of 25+ knots, with upper level winds diametrically opposed the low level southerly winds, resulting in a decoupling of the low level circulation center. Although there is moderate poleward upper level outflow and warm sea surface temperatures, the system is not expected to re-consolidate, leading to dissipation within 12 hours.   There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90W, which is located approximately 92 NM northeast of Davao, Philippines Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a defined low level circulation center with persistent convection over the northern semi-circle. Environmental nalysis shows a marginally favorable environment for development, with moderate to high >25 knot easterly wind shear, strong diffluence aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures…offset by the proximity to land. Global models are in general agreement that invest 90W will continue to track poleward along the eastern coastline of the Philippines. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.