CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 10S (Joshua)…is located 1160 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia…in the South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 12S (Eloise) is located 386 NM north of Port Louis, Mauritius…in the South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 11P (Kimi) is located 92 NM southeast of Cairns, Australia
 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 10S (Joshua)
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/10S_180000sair.jpg Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 6) According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts a slowly consolidating system with deep convective banding over the western semicircle, wrapping into a weakly defined low level circulation center. Upper-level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with weak poleward outflow, low northeasterly wind shear and conducive warm sea surface temperatures. TC10S is expected to track westward to west-southwestward through the forecast period. TC 10S is forecast to intensify slightly to 40 knots by 12 hours, although will weaken steadily after 36 hours, due to increasing wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, weak outflow and dry air entrainment.   Tropical Cyclone 12S (Eloise)
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/12S_180600sair.jpg
Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 3) According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts a large cluster of persistent deep convection obscuring the low level circulation, along with disorganized deep convection over the western semicircle, with shallow banding wrapping into a broad although defined low level circulation center. Upper-level analysis indicates a favorable environment with weak poleward outflow, good equatorward outflow, low to moderate wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. TC 12S is forecast to track west-southwestward through the forecast period. The passage of an upper-level trough to the south over the next 24-48 hours, should allow for improved poleward outflow, resulting in a short period of weak intensification to a peak of 40 knots by 24 hours. Thereafter, the combined effects of increasing wind shear, cooling sea surface temperatures and convergent flow aloft, will conspire to steadily weaken the system through 120 hours. TC 12S is forecast to steadily intensify to a peak of 55 knots by 48 hours, as it approaches the northeast coast of Madagascar. However, the system may peak higher after 48 hours prior to making landfall near 72 hours. After 72 hours, TC 12S will rapidly weaken over the mountainous terrain of Madagascar with dissipation anticipated by 96 hours. TC 12S is forecast to re-intensify as it emerges over the Mozambique Channel near 108 hours.  

Southwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Kimi)
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/11P_180600sair.jpg
Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 6) According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts a compact, midget TC with a 60-65 NM diameter central dense overcast feature. In addition, there’s tightly-curved banding wrapping into a well-defined low level circulation center. Animated radar imagery from the Cairns radar also shows a well-defined low level circulation center located just west of Bougainville Reef, which is reporting 25-30 knot sustained winds with 30-35 knot gusts. Upper-level analysis indicates a favorable environment with robust poleward outflow into strong upper-level westerlies, low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. TC 11P is forecast to track slowly southward through 12 hours, within a competing steering environment, although should gradually turn southwestward then west-southwestward…as a subtropical ridge builds to the south. TC 11P is expected to intensify to a peak intensity of 60 knots by 24 hours, with rapid weakening over land and dissipation by 48 hours. There is some uncertainty in the peak intensity…as midget cyclones can rapidly intensify unexpectedly.
 
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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