Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 10S

Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 1) According to the JTWC…satellite imagery reveals flaring deep convection obscuring a consolidating low level circulation. Analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with low to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and moderate poleward outflow aloft. TC 10S will steadily intensify to a peak of 50 knots by 48 hours, due to marginally favorable conditions. After 72 hours, the intensity will begin to decrease due to increasing wind shear, decreasing mid-level moisture, and convergent flow aloft.    

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 99S, which is located approximately 407 NM southwest of Diego Garcia Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level center, obscured by flaring convection, sheared to the west with convective banding wrapping into the circulation from the south. Global models are in good agreement that invest 99S will track to the west-southwest as it slowly intensifies. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28-33 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.   There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91P Here’s what the computer models are showing The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.