CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 19S (Faraji) is located approximately 848 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia
Tropical Cyclone 20P is located approximately 473 NM south-southeast of Suva, Fiji

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Faraji) https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/19S_091800sair.jpg Sustained 110 knot winds…with gusts to 135 knots (as of Warning Number 10) Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals deep central convection obscuring the low level circulation center. Environmental analysis reveals TC 19S is tracking through an overall  marginally favorable environment, characterized by warm sea surface temperatures and low 10-15 knot wind shear…offset by limited eastward outflow. TC 19S has begun to track southeastward as a building subtropical ridge to the east begins to take over as the primary steering mechanism, and thus limit further eastward progress. This ridge is expected to turn the system to a generally southward track through 24 hours. Afterwards, the storm will turn west as a ridge to the south begins to build. Throughout the forecast period, TC 19S is expected to steadily weaken due to increasing wind shear and generally weak upper level outflow. Short duration bursts of convective activity are likely to occur on a diurnal cycle, potentially leading to fluctuations in intensity. Nevertheless, the overall intensity trend will be weakening through the forecast period.     Tropical Cyclone 20P https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/20P_100000sair.jpg Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 1) Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows convective banding wrapping into a partially exposed low level circulation with the associated deep convection being sheared over the eastern semi-circle. Environmental analysis reveals TC 20P is tracking into a marginally favorable environment characterized by warm sea surface temperatures and robust dual channel upper level outflow…offset by persistent high 25-30  knots wind shear. In the near term, the conducive sea surface temperatures and robust outflow aloft will allow the system a brief period of intensification to 50 knots by 12 hours. Afterwards, the system will steadily weaken due to continued high wind shear and rapidly cooling sea surface temperatures by 48 hours.   Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.