CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 19S (Faraji) is located approximately 727 NM southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Faraji) https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/92P_081500sair.jpg Sustained 140 knot winds…with gusts to 170 knots (as of Warning Number 8) // Equivalent to a Super Typhoon Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts dense, axi-symmetric convection characteristic of an annular tropical cyclone, along with cooling cloud tops surrounding a well defined 20 NM diameter eye. TC Faraji is tracking through a favorable environment characterized by low 5-10 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperature that is offset by reduced outflow aloft. This loss of previously robust poleward and equatorward outflow, coupled with the upwelling of cooler water due to the previously nearly stationary track motion, will prevent further intensifying, however the annular convective structure will allow for only moderate weakening in the near term to 100 knots by 48 hours. As a ridge continues to build, it will begin to drive TC Faraji initially southward from 48 to 72 hours, southwestward from 72 to 96 hours, and then westward through the remainder of the forecast period. Steady weakening will occur during this period as a result of continual moderate wind shear after 48 hours, coupled with convergent flow aloft and possibly entrainment of cool dry air from the east. By 120 hours, these conditions will weaken the system to 45 knots.   https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/92P.INVEST/ir/modis/1km/20210208.013000.aqua.modis.Infrared.tc2192PINVEST.covg100p0.unknown.res1km.jpg There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 145 NM east-northeast of Nadi, Fiji Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals flaring, deep convection surrounding a broad area of low level circulation. Environmental analysis shows a marginally favorable outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures…offset slightly by moderate 15-20 knot wind shear. Numerical models are converging on a southwestward track with subsequent consolidation into a tropical cyclone within the next 48-72 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27-32 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.   Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.