Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Feb 3, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 18S is located approximately 121 NM south of Learmonth, Australia
Tropical Cyclone 18S
Sustained 30 knot winds…with gusts to 40 knots (as of Warning Number 15)
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a well organized system with a very compact core of deep convection and low level bands wrapping into an obscured low level circulation center.
Looping radar images from Learmonth, Australia
TC 18S is currently in a weak steering environment and generally remains quasi-stationary over the previous 6-12 hours. While the center remains overland, the overall environment is generally favorable, with low 10-15 knot wind shear, and robust poleward outflow, though the atmosphere has dried somewhat over the past few hours.
The deep ridge located to the northeast should start to assert its influence over the next 12 hours, pushing TC 18S towards the southwest, emerging over water between 24-36 hours.
Once the system moves over the warm waters west of Australia, it will have a short window where wind shear remains in the low to moderate range, and is offset by strong poleward outflow and should peak at 35 knots by 36 hours.
Thereafter, sea surface temperatures rapidly decrease, while wind shear increases dramatically ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough, serving to dissipate the system in no later than 72 hours.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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