CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 01W (Dujuan) is located 373 NM southeast of Manila, Philippines – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 21S (Guambe) is located 750 NM south-southeast of Europa Island – Final Warning
 
Tropical Cyclone 01W (Dujuan) Final Warning
 
Sustained 25 knot winds…with gusts to 35 knots (as of Warning Number 20) Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the deep, expansive, flaring convection ahead of the low level circulation has rapidly eroded and shrunk as it tracked across the ragged terrain of the central Philippine Islands. Analysis indicates warm along-track sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea, and robust west and poleward outflow aloft. Relative wind shear is marginally conducive, due to the storm motion being in-phase with the mid and upper level wind flow. TS Dujuan will continue tracking northwestward across the central Philippine Islands, including Leyte, Romblon, and Mindoro, before exiting into the South China Sea by 36 hours. Increased 25+ knot wind shear, combined with the frictional effects of the rugged terrain, will erode the TS to dissipation.  
Tropical Cyclone 21S (Guambe) Final Warning
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/21S.GUAMBE/gmi/pct/20210222.012617.SH212021.gmi.GPM.89pct.55kts.18p6.1p0.jpg Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 10) Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system continued to gradually decay, as evidenced by warming central cloud tops and unraveling rain bands. Environmental analysis indicates strong poleward outflow offset by increasing 20+ knot wind shear, and cooling sea surface temperatures. TC 21S will continue on its current track for the remainder of the forecast. The marginal environment will sustain the intensity up to 12 hours…afterward, down to 40 knots by 24 hours. Concurrently, the cyclone will begin extra-tropical transition by 12 hours, and transform into a storm-force cold core low, with an expansive wind field by 24 hours.   https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/94P.INVEST/gmi/pct/20210221.025124.SH942021.gmi.GPM.89pct.15kts.24p8.1p0.jpg There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94P, which is located approximately 330 NM north-northeast of Suva, Fiji Here’s was the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a very broad and elongated circulation embedded in the south pacific convergent zone, with disorganized area of flaring deep convection along the northern boundary. Upper level analysis indicates low 05-10 knot wind shear and ample poleward outflow. Additionally, sea surface temperatures are conducive. Global models indicate invest 94P will propagate southeastward along the trough and consolidate into a large circulation with an expansive wind field in 24-36 hours…approximately 200 NM south of American Samoa. Maximum sustained surface temperatures are estimated at 10-15 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.   Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.