CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 17P (Lucas) is located approximately 57 NM east-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 18S is located approximately 85 NM south of Learmonth, Australia
Tropical Cyclone 17P (Lucas) – Final Warning
Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 13) According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts flaring central convection obscuring a low level circulation center. TC Lucas is tracking through a marginally unfavorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures and robust poleward outflow aloft, offset by high 30+ knot wind shear and convergent upper level flow along the northeastern periphery of the system. In the near term, TC Lucas will maintain a 50 knot intensity through 12 hours, and then begin a gradual weakening trend due to continued high wind shear. A building ridge positioned to the southeast, will take over steering after 12 hours and begin to drive the system on a southwestward track after 24 hours. Continued high wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures thereafter will lead to further weakening…leading to dissipation over water by 48 hours. Tropical Cyclone 18S Sustained 30 knot winds…with gusts to 40 knots (as of Warning Number 11) According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts spiraling bands of deep convection that wraps into an obscured low level circulation center. Upper level analysis indicates the system has robust radial outflow and is tracking through a region of low 5-10 knot wind shear. The system will continue its generally westward to southwestward track under the steering influence of the ridge through 24 hours, at which time it will be approximately 125 NM south of Learmonth. Thereafter, a high amplitude trough propagating from the southwest will lead to an erosion and subsequent repositioning of the steering ridge. During this time, the system will enter a weak steering environment as the ridge re-positions and will undergo a temporary, quasi-stationary motion through 36 hours as a result. After 48 hours, TC 18S will enter the warm waters of the Indian Ocean and intensify slightly to 45 knots by 72 hours. As the steering ridge builds, it will drive the system poleward throughout the remainder of the forecast period. Increasing wind shear after 48 hours, and cooler sea surface temperatures after 96 hours, will lead to a gradual weakening to 35 knots by 120 hours. Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.