CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 01W (Dujuan) is located 747 NM southeast of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 21S (Guambe) is located 181 NM west-southwest of Europa Island
 
Tropical Cyclone 01W (Dujuan)
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/01W_190000sair.jpg Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 8) Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a fully exposed, well-defined low level circulation center, with flaring deep convection with overshooting tops sheared to the west of the low level center. Upper-level analysis indicates a marginal environment with moderate 15-20 knot easterly wind shear offset by robust diffluent poleward outflow. Sea surface temperatures remain conducive. TS 01W is moving slowly westward through the next 36 hours…in a generally weak steering pattern. Thereafter, the storm will turn more west-northwestward through 72 hours. Landfall is expected in near 60 hours along the far northeast coast of Mindanao. Numerical model guidance is in fair agreement through 48 hours, with increasing uncertainty by 72 hours. Wind shear is currently dominating the system. However, this wind shear is expected to weaken slightly over the next day or so, which will allow the system to reestablish core convection, enabling a slow although steady intensification to a peak of 50 knots by 48 hours. By 72 hours the system is expected to be in the Bohol Sea, and will track northwestward over the major islands of the southwest Philippines, reemerging into the northern Sulu Sea by 96 hours, and into the South China Sea before 120 hours. The combined effects of terrain interaction, increasing wind shear, decreased upper-level outflow and the entrainment of drier air…will weaken the system to 25 knots by 120 hours.  
Tropical Cyclone 21S (Guambe)
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/21S_181800sair.jpg Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 3) Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a steadily improving convective signature with weak cyclonic banding features becoming evident within the central dense overcast, which is obscuring the low level circulation center. Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions, with low 5-10 knot wind shear, moderate to strong, nearly radial outflow and warm sea surface temperatures. TC 21S is currently ensconced between a building subtropical ridge center over northern Madacasgar and a secondary ridge center over northern South Africa, resulting in slow movement southward. TC  21S is expected to steadily intensify under favorable conditions to a peak of 85 knots by 48 hours, then maintain intensity through 72 hours. Thereafter, increasing wind shear will offset the strong poleward outflow, leading to slow weakening. The system will begin extratropical transition by 96 hours, and become a storm-force extratropical system by 120 hours. All models concur on the overall scenario although display significant cross track uncertainty though 48 hours, with navgem and the coamps-tc taking the system much closer to the coast of Mozambique, and the gfs and ecmwf members keeping the system well offshore in the Mozambique Channel.     Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.