CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 19S (Faraji) is located approximately 923 NM southeast of Diego Garcia
Tropical Cyclone 20P is located approximately 671 NM south-southwest of Niue – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Faraji) https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/19S_101800sair.jpg Sustained 90 knot winds…with gusts to 110 knots (as of Warning Number 12) Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery showed an improved structure with a weak, but well defined, eye feature in the visible and warm spot in the infrared imagery. However, subsequent imagery indicates that this feature has filled in and cloud tops have warmed. The low level circulation center remains obscured by the deep core convection TC Faraji is currently moving very slowly southward through an overall favorable environment characterized by low to moderate 10-15 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures, being somewhat constrained by the lack of distinct outflow channel. Over the next 12-48 hours, the ridge to the east is expected to continue to build, while extending southwestward, leading TC 19S to slowly turn southwestward as well. Environmental conditions will remain very steady during this time frame, with only small increases in wind shear, resulting in a very slow weakening trend through 48 hours. In the first 48 hours, short-term excursions both above and below the mean intensity trend can be expected in response to short duration changes in the localized environment and diurnal effects. However, the overall intensity trend will be weakening through the forecast period. By 72 hours, the ridge builds and moves to a position to the south of the storm, leading to a generally west to slightly west northwest track through 120 hours. Environmental conditions will become increasingly unfavorable after 72 hours, with dry air entrainment and convergent flow aloft combining to weaken the system at much higher rate between 72-120 hours.   Tropical Cyclone 20P – Final Warning https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/20P_101200sair.jpg Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 3) Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows moderate convection flaring to the south of the partially exposed low level circulation center. The system is rapidly moving towards the south-southeast along the tight gradient between a ridge to the east and a strong mid-latitude upper-level trough to the west. TC 20P is becoming increasingly extratropical as it moves over cool waters.   Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.