CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONESTropical Cyclone 15P (Ana) is located approximately 304 NM west-southwest of Tonga – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 17P (Lucas) is located approximately 306 NM north-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia
Tropical Cyclone 18S is located approximately 117 NM east of Learmonth, Australia
Tropical Cyclone 15P (Ana) – Final Warning
Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 12)
According to the JTWC, depicts an exposed, broad low-level circulation center, with deep convection sheared to the southeast and a large region of stratocumulus (cooler, drier, more stable air) advecting over the western semicircle…in addition to shallow banding wrapping around the eastern and southern semicircles of a defined low level center.
Upper-level analysis indicates a marginal environment with strong 30-35 knot wind shear, associated with subtropical westerly flow aloft…offset by robust poleward outflow.
TC 15P is forecast to accelerate southeastward through 36 hours along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge, with increasing 35-40 knot wind shear. Additionally, sea surface temperatures are expected to decrease after 12 hours, which will lead to more rapid weakening and dissipation by 36 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 17P (Lucas)
Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 9)
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a compact central dense overcast feature with extensive deep convective banding over the northern semicircle, wrapping into the south quadrant of the system. In addition, there’s a weak microwave eye feature on the northern edge of the deep convection
Upper-level analysis indicates strong 30 knot wind shear offset by robust poleward outflow. TC 17P is forecast to track southeastward through 24 hours, but should transition to the steering influence of a subtropical ridge by 36 hours, which should steer the system southwestward through 96 hours.
TC Lucas is forecast to maintain intensity at 65 knots through 12 hours, but should weaken steadily through the remainder of the forecast period, as wind shear steadily increases to 40-55 knots, and sea surface temperatures cool. The system should dissipate by 96 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 18S
Sustained 30 knot winds…with gusts to 40 knots (as of Warning Number 7)
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depict fragmented convective banding wrapping into a defined low level circulation center.
Animated radar imagery from the Port Hedland, indicates a well-organized system with multiple convective bands wrapping into the well-defined center.
Upper-level analysis indicates near-radial outflow and low wind shear. TC 18S is forecast to track west-southwestward through 24 hours. After 24 hours, the system should slow significantly until a broad trough forms west of Australia, which should drive the system slowly southward after 72 hours. TC 18S is expected to maintain intensity while it tracks over land along the coast, but will intensify to 35 knots as it approaches the Exmouth peninsula and Learmonth solar observatory. After 36 hours, the system should gradually intensify to a peak intensity of 55 knots by 96 hours, with favorable environmental conditions and warm sea surface temperatures.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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