Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES

Tropical Cyclone 02S (Bongoyo)…is located 840 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone 03S…is located 523 NM north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia

Western North Pacific

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90P, which is located approximately 432 NM northeast of Nadi, Fiji Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, Invest 90P is in a marginal environment for development, with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, poleward and equatorward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures, Global models are in fair agreement that 90P will track west with little intensification. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 02S (Bongoyo)

Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, TC Bongoyo is moving through an unfavorable environment, characterized by high 25-30 knot wind shear, and cool sea surface temperatures, and weak convergent flow aloft…offset slightly by continued robust poleward outflow. Through 12 hours the system will track generally southwestward, while environment conditions will remain unfavorable thereafter, which will lead to further weakening along the westward track, which will lead to dissipation over water by 72 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 03S

Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, TC 03S is moving through a marginally environment, characterized by fair poleward outflow, moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, that is being offset slightly by improving upper level outflow…and warm sea surface temperatures. The system will continue to track southeastward. The environment is forecast to remain marginal through 12 hours, with favorable sea surface temperatures offset by continued moderate wind shear. Thereafter, low 5-10 knot wind shear along with continued upper level support and warm sea surface temperatures will allow for additional intensification during this time. Upon making landfall, TC 03S will begin dissipation over land due to interaction with the underlying terrain…fully dissipating over land by 72 hours.

Arabian Sea

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