Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Western North Pacific

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90P, which is located approximately 310 NM northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, Invest 90P is in a marginal environment for development, with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, poleward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures, Global models are in fair agreement that 90P will continue to deepen and track southwest passing east of New Caledonia. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.  

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

 

Tropical Cyclone 02S (Bongoyo)

Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, TC Bongoyo is moving through a favorable environment, low 5-10 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures…offset slightly by convergent flow along the equatorward periphery of the system. TC 02S will track generally southwestward and weaken slightly due to increasing 15-25 knot wind shear, decreasing upper level support and cooling sea surface temperatures. The system will turn westward after 36 hours, bringing the storm into an unfavorable environment by 48 hours, with high 30+ knot wind shear, cool sea surface temperatures, and poor upper level support. Due to these increasingly hostile environmental conditions, the system will begin to dissipate over water by 96 hours, and complete dissipation by 120 hours.