CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 02S (Bongoyo)…is located 1106 NM east of Port Louis, Mauritius
Tropical Cyclone 03S…is located 733 NM north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia
Western North PacificThere’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90P, which is located approximately 310 NM northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, Invest 90P is in a marginal environment for development, with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, poleward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures, Global models are in fair agreement that 90P will continue to deepen and track southwest passing east of New Caledonia. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
North Indian Ocean
South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 02S (Bongoyo)Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, TC Bongoyo is moving through a favorable environment, low 5-10 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures…offset slightly by convergent flow along the equatorward periphery of the system. TC 02S will track generally southwestward and weaken slightly due to increasing 15-25 knot wind shear, decreasing upper level support and cooling sea surface temperatures. The system will turn westward after 36 hours, bringing the storm into an unfavorable environment by 48 hours, with high 30+ knot wind shear, cool sea surface temperatures, and poor upper level support. Due to these increasingly hostile environmental conditions, the system will begin to dissipate over water by 96 hours, and complete dissipation by 120 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 03SHere’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, TC 03S is moving through a marginally favorable environment, characterized by fair poleward outflow, moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures. In the current environment, the system has limited time for further development, reaching a peak intensity of 50 knots by 12 hours. Afterwards, persistent wind shear and decreasing upper level support will cause the storm to gradually weaken as it tracks towards Australia…making landfall within 60 hours. The system will continue to weaken as it tracks inland with full dissipation over land expected by 96 hours.
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