Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 792 NM east-northeast of Diego Garcia Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a mostly exposed low level circulation located east from the main area of convection. Invest 93S is currently in a marginally favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures…offset by high >25 knot wind shear. Global models are in general agreement that invest 93S will track generally southwestward with minimal intensification over the next 24 hours…and may potentially absorb Invest 96S. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours downgraded to medium.   There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96S, which is located approximately 267 NM south of Diego Garcia. Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation with flaring convection overhead. Invest 96S is in a moderately favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures, westward and poleward outflow aloft, and moderate 15-25 knot wind shear. Global models are in good agreement that invest 96S will track slowly northeastward with steady intensification over the next 24 hours…and may begin to interact with Invest 93S Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is remains medium.