Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 60 knot winds…with gusts to 75 knots (as of Warning Number 11) According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the central convection has weakened, and has also become more compact, wrapping tighter into the low level circulation center. Analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment, with low <10 knot wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures in the Mozambique Channel, being offset by a lack outflow aloft…preventing the system from significant intensification. TC 07S continues to track westward in the Mozambique Channel, making landfall near Beira by 24 hours. Low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures will fuel further intensification to a peak of 60 knots by 12 hours. Afterward, land interaction will erode the system down to 50 knots after landfall, then rapidly toward dissipation by 24 hours, after it drags across Mozambique,,,and crosses into Zimbabwe.  

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 611 NM west of Cocos Islands Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a broad low level circulation offset to the southwest. Invest 93S is currently in a marginally favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures, good outflow aloft, and moderate to strong 20-25 knot wind shear. Global models are in general agreement that invest 93S will track generally southwestward with little intensification over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.   There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96S, which is located approximately 214 NM south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a broad low level circulation offset to the southwest. Invest 96S is in a marginally favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures, westward and poleward outflow aloft, and moderate to strong 20-25 knot wind shear. Global models are in general agreement that invest 96S will track slowly southeastward with little intensification over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.