Tropical Cyclone 07S (Chalane)…is located approximately 154 NM north-northeast of Europa Island

South Indian Ocean
Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 9) According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts deep convection flaring east of the assessed low level circulation. Environmental analysis reveals generally supportive conditions, with low <10 knot wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures, being offset by weak outflow aloft. TC 07S continues to track westward. Over the next 12 hours, the steering pattern is expected to increase in intensity. In the near-term, weak outflow and mid-level dry air will limit the opportunity for intensification through 24 hours. Thereafter, the mid-levels moisten, outflow slowly improves and the system moves over a pool of warmer sea surface temperatures, allowing for faster intensification through 36 hours. The system is expected to reach peak intensity of 55 knots at 36 hours…as it moves through a very favorable environment. There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 380 NM west-northwest of Cocos Islands Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a broad low level circulation offset to the southwest. Invest 93S is currently in a marginally favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures, good outflow aloft, and moderate to strong 20-25 knot wind shear. Global models are in general agreement that invest 93S will track generally southwestward with little intensification over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is remains low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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