Tropical Cyclone 07S (Chalane)…is located approximately 109 NM west of Antananarivo, Madagascar

South Indian Ocean
Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 7) According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts expansive deep convection over the northwest quadrant of an obscured low-level circulation. Microwave imagery continues to reveal an organized convective structure despite the recent track over the rugged, mountainous terrain of Madagascar. TC 07S is tracking along the western periphery of a north-south oriented subtropical ridge  positioned east of Madagascar but is forecast to transition to the westward steering influence of a ridge positioned south of the Mozambique Channel. TC 07s is expected to steadily intensify under favorable upper-level conditions of low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures after tracking over the Mozambique Channel near 12 hours. There is uncertainty in the peak intensity with some potential for a short period of rapid intensification after 24 hours. The peak intensity has been increased to 65 knots at 48 hours, with potential for a higher iIntensity before landfall near 66 hours…south of Beira. There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 306 NM west-northwest of Cocos Islands Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a broad low level circulation circulation with sheared convection to the southwest. Invest 93s is currently in an marginally favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures, good poleward outflow aloft, and moderate to strong 15-25 knot wind shear. Global models are in general agreement that invest 93S will track generally westward with little to no intensification over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is remains low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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