CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 07S (Chalane)…is located approximately 148 NM east-northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar
computer models are showing Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 5) According to the JTWC, reveals flaring deep convection obscuring the low level circulation center, as the system moves towards Madagascar. Environmental analysis indicates marginally favorable conditions consisting of easterly diffluent flow over the system, low to moderate 5-15 knot wind shear, and conducive sea surface temperatures. The system is tracking southwestward along the northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned to the southeast. The system is expected to make landfall over Madagascar imminently and then track southwestward, weakening to 25 knots by 24 hours, due to land interaction. By 36 hours, TC 07S should emerge over water in the Mozambique Channel, where a building ridge to the southwest will take over as the primary steering mechanism, driving TC 07S generally westward through the remainder of the forecast period. Within the channel, favorable environmental conditions of low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures will allow the storm to re-intensify to a peak of 45 knots within 72 hours. Shortly before 96 hours, the system is expected to make final landfall near Beira, Mozambique, where interaction with the rugged terrain will steadily weaken the system…and lead to dissipation by 120 hours.