Here’s what the
computer models are showing
Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 3)
According to the JTWC, depicts a disorganized convective signature, with deep convection displaced to the south of the assessed low level circulation center. Convection has weakened over the previous six hours…likely in response to the diurnal cycle.
Overall the environment is marginally supportive for develop, with low 5-10 knots wind shear, moderate poleward and westward outflow and warm sea water temperatures. Upper-level outflow has decreased somewhat since the previous warning, as an upper-level trough to the south has moved to the east…curtailing the strong poleward outflow seen earlier.
TC Chalane is expected to make landfall along the northeast coast of Madagascar near 48 hours, then track southwestward through 72 hours as the system crosses the rugged terrain of central Madagascar and weakens, it will take a sharper south-southwest turn and emerge back over water in the Mozambique channel by 96 hours.
Thereafter, TC 07S will move onto a more westward track through 120 hours. Due to the presence of somewhat drier mid-level air to the north and northerly wind shear, the system has still failed to fully consolidate and maintain a strong convective core.
Mid-level moisture is expected to increase over the next 24 hours, while wind shear slackens, allowing the system to intensify to 45 knots prior to landfall. After reemerging into the Mozambique channel, warm sea surface temperatures, combined with low wind shear and more robust outflow will allow for re-intensification.
