CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 05P (Yasa)…is located 347 NM southeast of Suva, Fiji – Final Warning
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 05P (Yasa) – Final Warning
Here’s what the computer models are showing
Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 31)
According to the JTWC, TC Yasa is moving steadily west-southward. Strong and increasing westerly wind shear has displaced the limited remaining deep convection to the southeast of the circulation center. The convective and core temperature structure of TC 05P are steadily becoming subtropical.
TC 05P will continue to move southwestward following the steering flow associated with ridging to the southeast, as the system completes subtropical transition over the next 24 hours.
An approaching upper-level trough to the west will enable the system to nearly maintain intensity throughout the 24-hour forecast period, offsetting the negative impacts of
sustained, strong wind shear and passage over cooler water.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 99W, which is located approximately 132 NM east-southeast of Puerto Princesa, Philippines
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a broad, partially obscured low level
circulation center with flaring deep convection to the north and south, being heavily sheared to the west. Microwave imagery reveals limited deep convection with some indications of lower convective structure.
99W is currently in a marginal environment with a moderate poleward outflow and
unfavorable 30 to 40 knots of wind shear…offsetting warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that 99W will track generally west-northwestward with minimal intensification as it crosses over Palawan. Once crossing into the South China Sea, the system will begin interacting with a northerly cold air surge, sparking higher winds to the west…however, 99W will remain very asymmetric.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.
South Indian Ocean
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 442 NM west-northwest of the Cocos Islands
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows an elongated low level circulation with limited in the northwestern quadrant.
Invest 93S is currently in an marginally favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures, moderate outflow aloft…offset by moderate to high 15-25 knot wind shear.
Global models are in general agreement showing little to no intensification as Invest 93S slowly tracks northeastward.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94S, which is located approximately 214 NM east-northeast of Broome, Australia
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a low level circulation with flaring convection and some formative cloud banding in the southern semi-circle.
Invest 94S is currently over land with marginally favorable upper level conditions, including good outflow aloft, and low <15 knot wind shear.
Global models are in general agreement showing invest 94S will slightly intensify as it continues to track southwestward along the Australian coast.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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