CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 05P (Yasa)…is located 255 NM southeast of Suva, Fiji
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 05P (Yasa)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 27)
According to the JTWC, TC 05P has continued to interact with a broad upper-level trough with strong 30 knot wind shear, which has contributed to the steady weakening. Satellite imagery depicts an exposed, tightly wrapped low level circulation center, with limited deep convection sheared to the southeast.
TC 05P will track southward to south-southwestward, remaining embedded within a deep upper-level trough, with increasing 40-60 knot wind shear..and cooling sea surface temperatures after 18 hours.
Slight weakening is anticipated, however, the system will remain a strong cold-core low with 45-50 knot winds through 36 hours.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 99W, which is located approximately 311 NM east-southeast of Puerto Princesa, Philippines
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a slowly consolidating low level circulation, with flaring convection sheared to the northwest quadrant.
Upper level analysis reveals that 99W is in a marginally favorable environment for development with warm sea surface temperatures, moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, and strong poleward outflow.
Global models indicate the system will intensify as it begins to tap into a northeast surge event as the system continues to track west-northwestward.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.
South Indian Ocean
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 552 NM west-northwest of the Cocos Islands
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a weak circulation with flaring convection overhead.
Invest 93S is currently in an marginally favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures, weak poleward outflow aloft, and low <15 knot wind shear.
Global models are in general agreement showing invest 93S tracking generally east-southeastward with little to no intensification.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94S, which is located approximately 197 NM west-southwest of the Darwin, Australia
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a weak circulation with flaring convection sheared along the northwestern periphery of the disturbance.
Invest 94S is currently in a favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures, good outflow aloft, and low to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear.
Global models are in general agreement showing invest 94S will slightly intensify as it continues to track west-southwestward along the Australian coast, which will hinder development…before turning more inland.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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