CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 05P (Yasa)…is located 154 NM east of Suva, Fiji
Western North PacificTropical Cyclone 05P (Yasa)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
Sustained 75 knot winds…with gusts to 90 knots According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a dramatically weakened system, with the previously well established eye having fully filled in and dissipated, after passing over the island of Vanua Levu. Upper-level analysis indicates radial outflow with enhanced, although weakening, poleward outflow into the mid-latitude westerlies to the south, with moderate 15-25 knot wind shear. Sea surface temperatures remain warm. TC 05P is forecast to continue tracking southeastward through 24 hours, then slowing down and turning south through 48 hours…and finally southwestward through 72 hours. The combination of steadily increasing wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures will offset the continued robust outflow, leading to steady weakening through 96 hours. Around 72 hours, as the system moves over cooler waters and begins to interact with an upper-level low, it is forecast to transition to a subtropical storm.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 99W, which is located approximately 140 NM east-southeast of Davao, Philippines Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows an extensive region of persistent deep convection sheared to the north and west of a broad low-level circulation. Upper-level analysis indicates a marginal environment with moderate to strong easterly wind shear offset by strong diffluence. Global models indicate a west-northwestward track over Mindanao which will hinder development for the next 36 hours, however, the system may intensify after 36 hours as it tracks over the Sulu Sea and interacts with northeast surge flow. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.
North Indian Ocean
South Indian OceanThere’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 850 NM east of Diego Garcia Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a weak circulation with some sheared convection overhead. Invest 93S is currently in an marginally favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures, good westward outflow aloft, and high 30-35 knot wind shear. Global models are in general agreement showing invest 93S tracking generally eastward with little to no intensification. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
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