CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 05P (Yasa)is located 325 NM northwest of Suva, Fiji
Tropical Cyclone 06P (Zazu)…is located 115 NM south of Niue
 

Western North Pacific

  Tropical Cyclone 05P (Yasa)
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/05P_151800sair.jpg Here’s what the computer models are showing
Sustained 140 knot winds…with gusts to 170 knots (Super Typhoon) According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts an intensifying system, with a well-defined 14 NM eye and spiral bands of deep convection nearly surrounding the core. TC Yasa is tracking slowly eastward through an overall favorable environment with warm  sea surface temperatures, low 5-10 knot wind shear, and robust radial outflow. TC 05P is forecast to continue tracking generally eastward through 24 hours, before turning southeastward through 72 hours. The system is forecast to pass between the islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu near 48 hours, then continue tracking southeast through 72 hours. After this point, TC Yasa will turn southward, then southwestward. The system is forecast to steadily intensify, reaching a peak of 120 knots 24 hours under favorable environmental conditions of warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear…and radial outflow After passing between the Fijian islands, disruption of the low-level flow, increasing wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures combine to weaken the system to 60 knots by 120 hours, as it begins to transition to a subtropical system.  
Tropical Cyclone 06P (Zazu)
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/06P_151800sair.jpg Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots According to the JTWC, satellite imagery indicates that the system has surprisingly been somewhat successful in fending off high, westerly wind shear. Flaring convection has shown increasing organization, with spiral cloud banding developing over the past few hours, obscuring the low level circulation center. The overall environment remains generally unfavorable with high >30 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, being somewhat offset by robust, divergent poleward outflow. TC 05P is forecast to track southeastward through the forecast period. In the near-term, the system will intensify slightly as it transits under the highly divergent upper-level flow, ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough…offsetting the high wind shear.
 

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

 
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