CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 05P (Yasa)…is located 392 NM west-northwest of Suva, Fiji
Tropical Cyclone 06P (Zazu)…is located 233 NM west of Niue
Western North PacificTropical Cyclone 05P (Yasa)
Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts spiral bands of deep convection wrapping into an obscured low level circulation center. TC Yasa is tracking through an overall favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures, low 5-10 knot wind shear and well established poleward and equatorward outflow aloft. Through 12 hours, TC 05P is forecast to track generally equatorward. By 24 hours, the system will begin a generally eastward track. During this initial track, TC Yasa will continue to intensify due to continued favorable environmental conditions. By 48 hours, the system will reach an intensity of 95 knots and begin to track generally southwestward. TC 05P will then reach a peak intensity of 100 knots by 72 hours, prior to making landfall along the northwest coast of Fiji. Interaction with the underlying terrain of the island and moderate 15-20 knot wind shear thereafter will weaken the system to 75 knots by 120 hours. Tropical Cyclone 06P (Zazu)
Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts spiral bands wrapping into a low level circulation center that is obscured by deep convection. TC Zazu is tracking through a marginally favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures and established poleward outflow, offset slightly by moderate 15-20 knot wind shear and convergent flow aloft to the northwest. Through 24 hours the environment will remain marginally favorable and allow the system to reach a peak intensity of 60 knots by this time. Thereafter, high 30+ knot wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will lead to a weakening trend through the remainder of the forecast period.
North Indian Ocean
South Indian Ocean
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