Tropical Cyclone 05Pis located 358 NM northwest of Suva, Fiji

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 05P Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, TC 05P is moving through a marginally favorable environment characterized by low 10-15 knot wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and near radial upper level outflow. Over the past 6-hours, the system has experienced direct cyclone interaction with TC 04P which has been interacting with the southwestern periphery of TC 05P. The system will begin to accelerate southeastward through the remainder of the forecast period. TC 05p is expected to gradually intensify throughout the forecast period to 100 knots. It appears that the storm will remain away from land…although getting pretty close to Fiji towards the end of the forecast period. There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 91 NM south-southwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa. Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows low level cloud banding wrapping into a low level circulation center, obscured by deep convection. Invest 92P is in an area conducive for tropical cyclone development with poleward outflow, low 10-15 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures. Global models are in good agreement that 92P will continue to consolidate and track west-southwestward  over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

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