CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 09W (Bavi)…is located approximately 128 NM northwest of Inchon, South Korea Tropical Cyclone 13E (Hernan)…is located 415 miles southeast of the southern tip of Baja California Tropical Cyclone 14E (Iselle)…is located 620 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja CaliforniaNortheast Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 13E (Hernan)
According to the NHC Advisory 4…Hernan is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight.
A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Thursday, followed by a west-northwestward motion on Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Hernan, along with the strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. A weakening trend is expected to begin late Thursday night, and Hernan is forecast to become a remnant low Friday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), mainly to the south and southwest of the center.
Tropical Cyclone 14E
According to the NHC Advisory 3…Iselle is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the southeast of the center.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Central Pacific
Here’s a satellite image of this area
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 09W (Bavi)
Here’s what the computer models show
According to the JTWC, typhoon Bavi will tracking northward over the next 48 hours.
Upper level conditions are favorable for development, with robust poleward outflow, and low to wind shear. Despite this, continue very warm sea surface temperatures will allow the system to intensify to 105 knots by 24 hours.
Typhoon Bavi will gradually weaken as the system encounters cooler sea surface temperatures over the northern Yellow Sea and strong wind shear after 24 hours.
There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 94W, which is located approximately 480 NM east-northeast of Yap
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, the system is in a favorable environment with good equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures…being offset by moderate 10-20 knot wind shear.
Models are in good agreement that the system will remain nearly stationary while consolidating over the next 48-60 hours, and intensifying before turning northward with continued development.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.
The potential for the system to transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 is upgraded to medium.
Satellite image of this area
