CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONESTropical Cyclone 09W (Bavi)…is located approximately 197 NM northwest of Kadena AB, Okinawa
Northeast PacificA broad low pressure system is located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show some signs of organization, and environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next couple of days while the system moves slowly east-northeastward to northeastward toward the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent >>> A small low pressure system has moved inland over south-central Mexico just north of Puerto Angel. The low is forecast to meander or move slowly westward to west-northwestward over or near the southern coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could still form if the system moves back out over the water during the next day or two. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely in southeastern Mexico and northern Central America during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent >>> Another small low pressure system has developed several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more favorable for development during the next several days while the system moves slowly east-northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Here’s a satellite image of this area
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Western North PacificTropical Cyclone 09W (Bavi) According to the JTWC, typhoon Bavi will tracking northward over the next 72 hours. The environment will change from favorable to marginally favorable over the next 12 hours, due to increasing, moderate 15-25 knot wind shear. Despite this, continue very warm sea surface temperatures will allow the system to intensify to 105 knots by 24 hours. As the system continues to track poleward, it will begin to encounter cooling sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear, which will lead to gradual weakening to 85 knots by 48 hours. Thereafter, the system will make landfall over the Korean peninsula and track inland over mainland China. Interaction with an incoming trough in the upper levels, and the underlying terrain will cause the system to weaken to 40 knots by 72 hours.
Satellite image of this area