CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 26S (Seroja)…is located approximately 363 NM west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia
Tropical Cyclone 27S (Odette)…is located approximately 330 NM north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia
 
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Tropical Cyclone 26S (Seroja)
Sustained 60 knot winds…with gusts to 75 knots (as of Warning Number 23) Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows deep convection completely wrapping around a compact low level circulation center. The environment remains favorable, with low to moderate 10-15 knot wind shear and strong poleward outflow aloft. TC 26S (Seroja) and TC 27S (Odette) are continuing to interact, separated by an estimated 295 NM. Odette remains the smaller cyclone and is not expected to prevent Seroja from intensifying. The cyclone is expected to slightly wobble and pull to the right as a result of binary interaction with TC 27S that will approach TC 26S to within 250 NM. A period of swift intensification remains possible as Seroja completes the formation of an inner core and rounds the ridge axis to the west through 36 hours. The intensity is expected to increase up to 48 hours just prior to landfall in western Australia, at which time, wind shear is expected to increase to 20-25 knots and the cyclone will approach the jet stream, as well as possible entrainment of mid latitude dry air. Peak intensity is forecast at 80 knots at 48 hours, just prior to landfall. The exact timing of landfall near Geraldton, Australia just after 48 hours has above-average uncertainty, due to inherent uncertainty contained in the binary interaction scenario. After landfall, the system is expected to decrease in intensity and rapidly transition to an extra-tropical low as it moves over the Australian Bight by 72 hours, and complete transition process over the much cooler water before 96 hours.  
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Tropical Cyclone 27S (Odette)
Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 21) Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center completely decoupled from the main body of convection sheared to the west of the center. The environment remains marginally favorable with slight poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures, but remains slightly offset by increased southeasterly wind shear between 25-30 knots as the interaction of Odette and Seroja has closed to 295 NM. Satellite imagery indicates that the main body of convection is remaining towards the periphery. The window of further intensification is closing, with no further increase in maximum winds forecast. Weakening is forecast after 12 hours as odette rotates around the north, then east side of Seroja. Seroja is still expected to eventually absorb the smaller circulation of Odette, leading to dissipation between 24 and 36 hours, just after the pair of cyclones cross the latitude of Learmonth, Australia.     https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/91S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210409.154000.SH912021.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.25kts.100p0.1p0.jpg There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91S, which is located approximately 46 NM northeast of Cocos Islands, Australia Here’s was the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring convection in the southern periphery of a broad, elongated low level circulation. Invest 91S is in a marginal environment for tropical development with minimal poleward outflow aloft and moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…offset by warm sea surface temperatures Global models are in general agreement that invest 91S will intensify slightly over the next 48-72 hours as it tracks to the southeast. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.     https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/92P.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210409.203032.SH922021.abi.goes-17.Infrared-Gray.30kts.62p2.1p0.jpg There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 370 NM northwest of Noumea, New Caldonia Here’s was the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts formative convective banding wrapping into a broad low level circulation center. Environmental analysis indicates invest 92P is currently in a favorable environment with robust equatorward outflow, moderate 15-20 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Global models are in general agreement that invest 92P will track southeastward while intensifying. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.   Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)   For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.