CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Sub-Tropical Storm 02W (Surigae)…is located 438 NM west-southwest of Iwo To, Japan – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 29S (Jobo) is located 73 NM south-southwest of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Final Warning
 
  https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/02W_241800sair.jpg
Sub-Tropical Storm 02W (Surigae) Final Warning
Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 46) Here’s what the computer models are showing Looping, wide view satellite image…showing TS Surigae According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a steadily weakening convective structure, with weak convective activity constrained to the northeast quadrant of the broad, increasingly disorganized low level circulation. The overall environment is becoming increasingly hostile, with wind shear now exceeding 35 knots and cool sea surface temperatures. While the previous six hour track has been towards the east-southeast, over the next 12 hours, 02W is forecast to begin tracking to the east, then accelerate northeastward through the remainder of the forecast under the influence of the strong mid-level southwesterly flow. As the system begins to interact with the major shortwave trough, it will develop significant thermal advection, ultimately transitioning to a strong, gale-force extratropical system by 36 hours as it races northeastward under the mid-latitude westerlies.     https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/29S_241800sair.jpg Tropical Cyclone 29S (Jobo) Final Warning Sustained 25 knot winds…with gusts to 35 knots (as of Warning Number 9) Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that disorganized convection has flared up over the past six hours, reforming over and just east of the assessed low level center, indicative of a slight relaxation in the shear environment. TC Jobo is moving slowly west-northwestward along the northern periphery of an east-west oriented low to mid-level ridge. The overall environment remains favorable, with low 10-15 knot wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures. The main hindrance to any significant development prior to landfall is the presence of a region of relatively drier air to the west, prohibiting the recent flaring convection from expanding and persisting. Jobo is expected to make landfall just south of Dar es Salaam within the next 12 hours as a minimal tropical storm, before moving rapidly inland and quickly dissipating.   IR Satellite Image There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96P, which is located approximately 768 NM southeast of Papeete, French Polynesia Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, the system is currently classified as a subtropical storm, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features. Satellite imagery indicates the system is located directly under a broad upper level cold core low, with formative, spiral banding wrapping into a low level circulation with deep convection in the northwest and southeast peripheries. Environmental analysis for invest 96p indicates a hostile environment, not conducive for tropical development due to convergence aloft and cool sea surface temperatures. Global models show a general southward track with minimal intensification over the next 24-36 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 30-35 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.   Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)   For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.