Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Apr 18, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Typhoon 02W (Surigae)…is located 308 NM east of Manila, Philippines
Typhoon 02W (Surigae)
Sustained 125 knot winds…with gusts to 150 knots (as of Warning Number 23)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a system that remains intense, with a warm center and convective tops over a large symmetrical central dense overcast maintaining a pinhole 8 NM eye.
Analysis indicates a slightly unfavorable environment with the low 5-10 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea, offset by diminishing poleward outflow currently being suppressed by the mid-latitude trough migrating to the north.
TY 02W will continue tracking north-northwest as the steering ridge elongates meridionally through 48 hours, thereafter, the system will near the apex of the ridge by 72 hours. The diminishing outflow offsetting the low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, will primarily be responsible for its gradual weakening…down to 95 knots by 72 hours.
After 72 hours, TY Surigae will crest the ridge, recurve and accelerate northeastward. As Surigae moves to higher latitudes, the increasing wind shear and much cooler sea surface temperatures will begin to rapidly decay the intensity to 65 knots by 72 hours. Simultaneously, the system will begin extratropical transition.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95S, which is located approximately 721 NM west-southwest of Diego Garcia
Here’s was the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a recent flare of convection obscuring a low level circulation with low level banding.
Analysis indicates a favorable environment for development characterized by low 10-15 knot wind shear, poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in marginal agreement that invest 95S will propagate westward with minor development near northern Madagascar. GFS and ECMWF are outliers indicating development to TC strength within the next 72 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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