Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Apr 16, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 02W (Surigae)…is located 264 NM northwest of Kayangel, Palau
Tropical Cyclone 02W (Surigae)
Sustained 120 knot winds…with gusts to 145 knots (as of Warning Number 15)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows an eye popping through the central convection.
Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for continued intensification with low <15 knot wind shear, robust equatorward and improving poleward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea.
Typhoon 02W is forecast to track to the northwest through 48 hours. By 48 hours the ridge to the east builds and takes over as the primary steering mechanism, causing TY 02W to turn northward.
The system will steadily intensify due to robust upper-level outflow amplified by the mid-latitude trough, with TY 02W reaching peak intensity of 120 knots by 48 hours.
Numerical model guidance has diverged further from the previous warning with ecmwf and the ecmwf ensemble mean tracking northwestward through 120 hours, making landfall on Luzon just prior to 120 hours. The most recent gfs run has now tracked further west before recurving, whereas all other models recurve more quickly.
The environmental conditions will become less favorable as the amount of upper-level divergence decreases significantly by 96 hours, causing the system to decrease to 90 knots by 120 hours.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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