Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Apr 15, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 02W (Surigae)…is located 42 NM north of Kayangel, Palau
Tropical Cyclone 02W (Surigae)
Sustained 75 knot winds…with gusts to 90 knots (as of Warning Number 11)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows central cold cover continues to build up directly over the low-level circulation center, completely obscuring the position of the center.
Environmental analysis indicates an overall favorable environment for development with low 10-15 knot wind shear,
despite outflow aloft contained to the western semicircle. Very warm sea surface temperature in the Philippine Sea improves the overall environment for development.
Typhoon 02W is forecast to gradually transition to a northwestward track. The system will steadily intensify as the pressure on the eastern side gradually subsides, leading to robust, dual channel outflow that will significantly improve the environment for development, with TY 02W reaching 95 knots by 48 hours…and 115 knots by 72 hours.
After 72 hours, the break in the ridge results in the ridge to the east taking over as the primary steering mechanism, sending TY Surigae poleward as it tracks around the western periphery of this ridge.
The environmental conditions will become slightly less favorable as the amount of upper-level divergence decreases and sea surface temperatures lower through the end of the forecast period. The system will decrease down to 100 knots by 120 hours.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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