Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Apr 14, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 02W (Surigae)…is located 105 NM west-southwest of Yap
Tropical Cyclone 02W (Surigae)
Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 7)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has maintained overall convective signature with the main convection slightly offset westward from an obscured low level circulation.
Analysis indicates a favorable environment with robust dual outflow, low to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperature in the Philippine Sea.
The favorable environment will fuel steady intensification to 70 knots by 48 hours. Afterward, rapid intensification is expected as the favorable conditions are further enhanced by increasing poleward outflow and decreasing wind shear, and by 72 hours, reach 95 knots.
After 72 hours, a mid-latitude trough digging in from eastern Asia will break the ridge. In response, TS Surigae will track more poleward as the eastern side of the ridge will assume steering and by 96 hours, will drive the cyclone north-northeastward toward the break.
Concurrently, the highly favorable conditions will extend the rapid intensification, and bring TC 02W to a peak of 120 knots. Afterward, increasing wind shear will gradually erode the system to 110 knots by 120 hours.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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