CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Paulette)…is located 415 miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland
Tropical Cyclone 19L (Sally)…is located 65 miles south-southeast of Mobile, Alabama
Tropical Cyclone 20L (Teddy)…is located 865 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
Tropical Cyclone 21L (Vicki)is located 710 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
  Atlantic Ocean:   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-TAW-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/13/GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif http://maps.wxmap2.com/plt_loop/prw.gfs2.2020091218.lant.loop.gif   Tropical Cyclone 17L (Paulette) https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT17/refresh/AL172020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/023357_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT17/refresh/AL172020_earliest_reasonable_toa_34+png/150138_earliest_reasonable_toa_34.png What the computer models are showing According to the NHC Advisory 37…Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this general motion is expected into Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the south-southeast and south late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Paulette is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND: SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect portions of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the east coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.   Tropical Cyclone 20L (Teddy) https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT20/refresh/AL202020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/204325_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png What the computer models show According to the NHC Advisory 14…Teddy is now moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Teddy is expected to become a hurricane overnight. Teddy could then be near major hurricane strength in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND: SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT21/refresh/AL212020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/144127_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/ATL/21L.VICKY/vis/geo/1km/20200915.1530.goes16.x.vis1km.21LVICKY.45kts-1004mb-204N-306W.100pc.jpg Tropical Cyclone 21L (Vicki) What the computer models show According to the NHC Advisory 8…Vicky is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected overnight, followed by a westward motion starting late Wednesday, and a west-southwestward motion by late Thursday. Satellite-derived winds indicate that Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is still forecast over the next few days, and the system could become a remnant low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. >>> Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands have changed little during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, however, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent >>> A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean Caribbean:  WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea Gulf of Mexico:  https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/GM/13/GOES16-GM-13-1000x1000.gif https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL192020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/205735_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL192020_earliest_reasonable_toa_34+png/150347_earliest_reasonable_toa_34.png https://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0Z/EVX_loop.gif https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL1920WPCQPF+gif/150347WPCQPF_sm.gif https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL1920WPCERO+gif/205735WPCERO_sm.gif https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL192020_peak_surge+png/215703_peak_surge.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/19L_tracks_latest.png Tropical Cyclone 19L (Sally) According to the NHC Advisory 19…Sally is moving toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area early Wednesday. Sally is expected to move inland across southeastern Alabama Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf Coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND: STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide… MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay…4-7 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne…4-6 ft Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL Border…3-5 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay…3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line,FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrews Bay…1-3 ft Grand Isle, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in portions of the warning areas, and these conditions will continue through Wednesday night. RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Historic flooding is likely with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to move inland Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes may occur today through Wednesday across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.   >>> An elongated area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend a couple of hundred miles off the coast of northeastern Mexico. Development of this system should be slow to occur while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico