CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Paulette)…is located 1075 miles southeast of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 18L (Rene)...is located is located 925 miles west-northwest of Cabo Verde Islands
  Atlantic Ocean:   https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-TAW-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/13/GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT17/refresh/AL172020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/023357_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png Tropical Cyclone 17L (Paulette) What the computer models are showing According to the NHC Advisory 17Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Recently received satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Friday. Gradual strengthening is expected to begin Friday night, and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.   Tropical Cyclone 18L (Rene) https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL182020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/115107_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png Tropical Cyclone 18L (Rene) What the computer models show According to the NHC Advisory 16Rene is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday. A northwestward motion at slower forward speed is forecast Saturday night and Sunday. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. >>> A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from near the Central and Northwest Bahamas eastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast to move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of South Florida and the Keys during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent >>> A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form by this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent >>> Another tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean Gulf of Mexico:  A trough of low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished since earlier today, some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent Caribbean:  WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico