Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cristobal)…is located about 75 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River
Atlantic Ocean:There are no active tropical cyclones
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles east or northeast of Bermuda within a couple of days. This system could then acquire some subtropical characteristics by mid-to-late week while the low meanders over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cristobal)
Cristobal is moving northward through the Gulf of Mexico…moving toward a northern Gulf Coast landfall as a tropical storm today.
Tropical storm and storm surge warnings have been issued. Cristobal’s impacts are spreading across the Gulf Coast.
Rain, wind and coastal flooding may linger into Monday along the northern Gulf Coast. Cristobal’s remnants are expected to move north into the upper Midwest.
According to the NHC, Cristobal is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn toward the north-northwest late today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast this afternoon, then move inland across Louisiana late today through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall, and weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of he center. A National Ocean Service station at the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph (82 km/h) at an elevation of 78 feet (24 m).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne…3-5 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…2-4 ft Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Tampa Bay…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf coast today and tonight.
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to 12 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the eastern Gulf Coast, along with the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of Cristobal. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding and widespread flooding on smaller streams across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. New and renewed significant river flooding is possible along the central Gulf Coast and into the Mississippi Valley.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and northern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.