Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cristobal)…is located about 405 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cristobal)
The last June hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico was Alex, which made landfall in northeastern Mexico on June 30, 2010…which brought flooding rain to Monterey, Mexico, and the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas.
Tropical Storm Cristobal has reentered the Gulf of Mexico. It will then migrate toward a northern Gulf Coast landfall…as a tropical storm by later Sunday. Cristobal’s impacts should begin to reach the Gulf Coast on Saturday.
Rain, wind and coastal flooding may linger into Monday along the northern Gulf Coast. Cristobal’s remnants are expected to move north into the upper Midwest next week.
Locally heavy rain will continue to trigger life-threatening flooding and mudslides in Mexico and Central America.
According to the NHC, Cristobal is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move northward over the central Gulf of Mexico today, and will be near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast on Sunday. Cristobal’s center is then forecast to move inland across Louisiana late Sunday and Monday.
Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast until landfall occurs on the northern Gulf coast. Weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland late Sunday and Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42001, located in the central Gulf of Mexico, recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 45 mph (76 km/h).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne…3-5 ft Ocean Springs MS to Indian Pass FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay…1-3 ft Indian Pass FL to Aripeka FL…2-4 ft Aripeka FL to Marco Island FL including Tampa Bay…1-3 ft Morgan City LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River…2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Yucatan Peninsula during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning late Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Sunday.
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations:
Through Wednesday morning, for portions of the eastern and central Gulf Coast and the lower Mississippi Valley, rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, are forecast. Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the central Gulf Coast. Farther north across the mid-Mississippi Valley, rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected. This degree of rainfall is expected to lead to flash flooding, and widespread flooding on smaller streams is possible across the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan…Additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.
Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco and Oaxaca…Additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 12 inches.
Southern Guatemala, coastal portions of Chiapas, and El Salvador…Additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
Southern parts of Honduras…Additional 3 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Rainfall across Southeast Mexico and northern Central America would continue the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.