Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cristobal)…is located about 145 miles south of Campeche, Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones
There are no active tropical cyclonesWSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cristobal)
Cristobal formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday…and remains active over eastern Mexico….and should emerge into the Gulf of Mexico late Friday. It will then head toward a northern Gulf Coast landfall as a tropical storm by later Sunday.
Cristobal’s heavy rain and high surf should begin to reach the U.S. Gulf Coast Saturday. Areas near the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida should monitor the progress of Cristobal.
Until then, Cristobal will produce torrential rain and life-threatening flooding and mudslides in Mexico and Central America
Cristobal’s large wind field should cause high surf along the beaches of the entire Gulf Coast, although particularly to the east of the track from Louisiana to southwestern Florida… generating dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding.
These far-reaching impacts are expected to increase beginning Saturday and may persist into early Monday.
It appears the mid-day Sunday high tide is when coastal flooding will be highest along the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Gulf Coast.
The last June hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico was Alex, which made landfall in northeastern Mexico on June 30, 2010…which brought flooding rain to Monterey, Mexico, and the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas.
According to the NHC, the depression is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected overnight, and a subsequent northward motion should occur through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move over extreme northwestern Guatemala and eastern Mexico on Friday.
The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday night, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so, but slow strengthening is forecast to occur this weekend when Cristobal moves back over water.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday:
Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan…Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.
Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and Oaxaca…Additional 2 to 4 inches.
Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas…Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
El Salvador…Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
Southern parts of Honduras…Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible.