Potential Tropical Cyclone 03L…is located 40 miles south-southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana
Gulf of Mexico:Potential Tropical Cyclone 03LHEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION
What the computer models are showing
According to the NHC: A turn toward the north-northeast is expected overnight, with a turn toward the east-northeast expected by Saturday night or Sunday. On the forecast track, the system should move inland over Louisiana during the next several hours, then move across portions of the Gulf coast and southeastern states through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. There is still a high chance the system will become a tropical or subtropical storm through this morning while the center is over or near water. The system is expected to begin weakening this afternoon as it moves farther inland. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of the center. A WeatherFlow station in Gulfport, Mississippi recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h).
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percentHAZARDS AFFECTING LAND RAINFALL:The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the Central Gulf Coast. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely.
As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy rain will expand across the interior Southeast and western Carolina’s, resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL…2-3 ft
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay…2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…1-2 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL…1-2 ft
Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay…1-2 ft
Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA…1-2 ft
Vermilion Bay…1-2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in the warning area through Saturday.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Saturday across southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia.