1.) Surface observations along with satellite and radar data indicate that an area of low pressure, being referred to as Invest 98L, located about 50 miles east of Wilmington, North Carolina, is gradually becoming better defined. The associated showers and thunderstorms are still disorganized, however, and are mostly confined to the east of the center. The low is expected to move northeastward or north-northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks later today and then along the mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone will likely form later today or tonight.
Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible along the North Carolina Outer Banks today, and along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and Saturday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary.
What the computer models are showing
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent