Tropical Cyclone 09L (Isaias)…is located about 60 miles southwest of Greenville, North Carolina
According to the NHC Advisory 28A, Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion accompanied by an increase in forward speed is expected through today. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue to move across eastern North Carolina early this morning. The center will move into southeastern Virginia around daybreak, near or along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states today, and continue across the northeastern United States tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Only gradual weakening is anticipated while Isaias moves north-northeastward near the mid-Atlantic coast today.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A wind gust to 64 mph (104 km/h) was recently reported near Bogue, North Carolina.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC…3-5 ft Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC…2-4 ft Cape Fear NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers…2-4 ft Altamaha Sound GA to Edisto Beach SC…1-3 ft North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha’s Vineyard including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, and Delaware Bay…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in South and North Carolina this evening through tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today.
Widespread tropical-storm-conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the mid-Atlantic states tonight and Tuesday, with wind gusts to hurricane force possible. These winds could cause tree damage and power outages.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New England late Tuesday and are possible along the northern New England coast Tuesday night and early Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations:
Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals 8 inches.
Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches.
Heavy rainfall from Isaias will result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, through Tuesday night near the path of Isaias up the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic. Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the southern Appalachians and Northeast will be susceptible to minor river flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South Carolina beginning this evening, spreading across eastern North Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple tornadoes will be possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia northeastward into southern New England.
1.) Showers and thunderstorms have mostly dissipated near a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda.
Although a weak area of low pressure is expected to form over the next day or so, abundant dry air surrounding the system is likely to limit significant development.
This system is forecast to move northwestward at about 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic today, stall several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda tonight, and then drift southwestward on Thursday.
Here’s what the computer models are showing
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico
Gulf of Mexico:
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico