CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Typhoon 11W (Haishen)…is located approximately 273 NM east-southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan
A well-defined low pressure system is located about 100 miles south of the the southern coast of Mexico. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced well to the west of the low. Although upper-level winds are forecast to inhibit further development during the next couple of days, only a small increase in thunderstorm activity near the surface center of circulation could result in the formation of a tropical depression. This system is expected to move generally west-northwestward, near or along the southern coast of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of development, this system could produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 11W (Haishen)
Here’s what the computer models show
According to the JTWC, Typhoon 11W is tracking through an overall favorable environment, characterized by low wind shear, radial outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.
In the near term, the system will continue to track north-northwest through 48 hours. Thereafter the storm will turn more northward and is forecast to track just west of Kyushu…although could get within 80 NM west of Sasebo, Japan.
North Indian Ocean
South Indian Ocean
There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 91S, which is located approximately 439 NM east of Diego Garcia
Here’s what the computer models are showing
Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the system to transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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