CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 11W (Haishen)…is located approximately 493 NM southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan
The remnants of Atlantic basin Tropical Depression Nana are moving into the eastern Pacific waters near the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to inhibit significant development through early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward, near or along the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 11W (Haishen)
Here’s what the computer models show
According to the JTWC, the upper environment is characterized by near radial outflow and low <10 knot wind shear…along with warm sea surface temperatures. The typhoon is tracking through a highly favorable environment for continued development.
Typhoon Haishen will track generally west-northwestward, and then slowly turn poleward through 72 hours. In the near term, TY 11W is expected to rapidly intensify due to a continued favorable environment, with the intensity peaking at 130 knots by 24 hours.
After 72 hours, the models diverge, which will increase the uncertainty in the exact track forecast. The track could shift eastward toward Kyushu. After 72 hours, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will weaken the system.
North Indian Ocean
South Indian Ocean
There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 91S, which is located approximately 495 NM east of Diego Garcia
Here’s what the computer models are showing
Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the system to transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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