Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lexington Park--California--Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD Region, United States

    46 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    40 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Washington, DC--VA--MD Region, United States

    58 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Atlanta, GA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Dalton, GA Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Yuba City, California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Blue Ridge Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Silverado Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Grand County (East Troublesome Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Carbon County (Mullen Fire), Wyoming, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Crescent City (Slater and Devil Fires), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Larimer County (Cameron Peak Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Fresno (Creek Fire), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Atsani

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Piggott, AR Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Cassville, MO Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Tropical Storm - Zeta

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mobile, AL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Leonard Wood, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Antananarivo - Madagascar

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Ambatondrazaka, Toamasina - Madagascar

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Chattanooga, TN--GA Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Typhoon - Goni

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Newport, TN Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - South Shetland Islands

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 35 km W of Rauco, Chile

    15 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - Easter Island region

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - Pacific-Antarctic Ridge

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Karnataka, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Greece

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Vietnam

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mozambique

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 63 km N of La Serena, Chile

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 56 km WSW of Changuillo, Peru

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 65 km SSW of Sola, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 123 km NNE of Atka, Alaska

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southwestern Ethiopia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cambodia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Laos

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sudan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Sumatra Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - North Cotabato, Philippines

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Guimbal, Philippines

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Bagerhat, Bangladesh

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Jamaica

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Monkeypox - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    3 weeks ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
September 29, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 15W (Kujira)…located approximately 814 NM east of Yokosuka, Japan – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 18E (Marie)…is located about 630 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California

 

Northeast Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/EPAC/18E.MARIE/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20200929.2330.goes17.x.vis1km_high.18EMARIE.40kts-1003mb-137N-1100W.100pc.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 18E (Marie)

What the computer models are showing

According to the NHC’s Advisory 4Marie is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Marie is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

 

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

Western North Pacific

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/15W.KUJIRA/ir/geo/1km_bw/20200929.1050.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.15WKUJIRA.65kts-977mb-365N-1564E.100pc.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 15W (Kujira) – Final Warning

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, TY Kujira is tracking through a marginal environment with warm sea surface temperatures offset by moderately strong 20-25 knot wind shear and convergent flow aloft along the southern and southwestern periphery of the system.

TS 15W will continue to accelerate northeastward through the remainder of the forecast period. By 12 hours, the system will weaken to 55 knots due to increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures.

Thereafter, cooler sea surface temperatures and continued marginal wind shear will lead to a gradual weakening to 45 knots by 24 hours.

 

 

>>> There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 98W, which is located approximately 392 NM east-southeast of Iwo To, Japan

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, analysis indicates an environment favorable for development with low <15 knot wind shear, moderate poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models do not indicate that invest 98W will development at this time, however the disturbance is expected to track poleward.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the system to transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

 

South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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