CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 15W (Kujira)…located approximately 734 NM east of Yokosuka, Japan
What the computer models are showing… for what’s being referred to as Invest 94E
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in association with a low pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive, and a tropical depression will likely form later tonight or on Tuesday.
The low is expected to move generally westward for the next several days, and then turn west-northwestward by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 15W (Kujira)
Here’s what the computer models show
According to the JTWC, upper air analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with robust poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear aloft…however strong convergence over the southern semicircle continues to hinder convective development.
TS 15W is forecast to track north-northeastward through 24 hours. The system is expected to peak at 55 knots by 24 hours, with gradual weakening thereafter, as wind shear increases to 30 knots, and the system tracks over cool sea surface temperatures.
>>> There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 98W, which is located approximately 380 NM east-southeast of Iwo To, Japan
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, environmental analysis indicates Invest 98W is experiencing low <15 knot wind shear, moderate equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models do not resolve invest 98W well, and therefore do not indicate the development of the system at this time…as the system tracks poleward.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the system to transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.
North Indian Ocean
South Indian Ocean
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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