Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Flood - Lexington Park--California--Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD Region, United States

    19 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    13 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Washington, DC--VA--MD Region, United States

    31 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Atlanta, GA Region, United States

    40 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    56 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Dalton, GA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Yuba City, California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Blue Ridge Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Silverado Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Grand County (East Troublesome Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Carbon County (Mullen Fire), Wyoming, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Crescent City (Slater and Devil Fires), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Larimer County (Cameron Peak Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Fresno (Creek Fire), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Atsani

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Piggott, AR Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Cassville, MO Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Tropical Storm - Zeta

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mobile, AL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Leonard Wood, MO Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Antananarivo - Madagascar

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Ambatondrazaka, Toamasina - Madagascar

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Chattanooga, TN--GA Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Typhoon - Goni

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Newport, TN Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - South Shetland Islands

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 35 km W of Rauco, Chile

    14 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - Easter Island region

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - Pacific-Antarctic Ridge

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Karnataka, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Greece

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Vietnam

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mozambique

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 63 km N of La Serena, Chile

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 56 km WSW of Changuillo, Peru

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 65 km SSW of Sola, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 123 km NNE of Atka, Alaska

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southwestern Ethiopia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cambodia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Laos

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sudan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Sumatra Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - North Cotabato, Philippines

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Guimbal, Philippines

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Bagerhat, Bangladesh

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Jamaica

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Monkeypox - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    3 weeks ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
September 28, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 15W (Kujira)…located approximately 734 NM east of Yokosuka, Japan

 

Northeast Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/EPAC/94E.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20200928.2330.goes17.x.vis1km_high.94EINVEST.25kts-1008mb-137N-1052W.100pc.jpg

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_pac_5d0.png

What the computer models are showing… for what’s being referred to as Invest 94E

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in association with a low pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Environmental conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive, and a tropical depression will likely form later tonight or on Tuesday.

The low is expected to move generally westward for the next several days, and then turn west-northwestward by the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

 

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

Western North Pacific

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1520.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/15W.KUJIRA/ir/geo/1km_bw/20200928.2130.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.15WKUJIRA.60kts-980mb-326N-1541E.100pc.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 15W (Kujira) 

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, upper air analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with robust poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear aloft…however strong convergence over the southern semicircle continues to hinder convective development.

TS 15W is forecast to track north-northeastward through 24 hours. The system is expected to peak at 55 knots by 24 hours, with gradual weakening thereafter, as wind shear increases to 30 knots, and the system tracks over cool sea surface temperatures.

 

 

>>> There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 98W, which is located approximately 380 NM east-southeast of Iwo To, Japan

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, environmental analysis indicates Invest 98W is experiencing low <15 knot wind shear, moderate equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models do not resolve invest 98W well, and therefore do not indicate the development of the system at this time…as the system tracks poleward.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the system to transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

 

South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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