Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Landslides - Quang Nam Province, Vietnam

    6 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern England, United Kingdom

    8 minutes ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    12 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Blue Ridge Fire), California, United States

    14 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    14 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Vietnam

    19 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    20 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    20 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cambodia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lexington Park--California--Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD Region, United States

    59 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    52 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Washington, DC--VA--MD Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Atlanta, GA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Dalton, GA Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Yuba City, California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Silverado Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Grand County (East Troublesome Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Carbon County (Mullen Fire), Wyoming, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Crescent City (Slater and Devil Fires), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Larimer County (Cameron Peak Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Fresno (Creek Fire), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Atsani

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Piggott, AR Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Cassville, MO Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Tropical Storm - Zeta

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mobile, AL Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Leonard Wood, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Antananarivo - Madagascar

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Ambatondrazaka, Toamasina - Madagascar

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Chattanooga, TN--GA Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Typhoon - Goni

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Newport, TN Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - South Shetland Islands

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 35 km W of Rauco, Chile

    15 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - Easter Island region

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - Pacific-Antarctic Ridge

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Karnataka, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mozambique

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 63 km N of La Serena, Chile

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 56 km WSW of Changuillo, Peru

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 65 km SSW of Sola, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 123 km NNE of Atka, Alaska

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southwestern Ethiopia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Laos

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sudan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Sumatra Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - North Cotabato, Philippines

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Guimbal, Philippines

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Bagerhat, Bangladesh

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Jamaica

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Monkeypox - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    3 weeks ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
September 27, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 15W (Kujira)…located approximately 286 NM north of Minami Tori Shima

 

Northeast Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/EPAC/94E.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20200928.1400.goes17.x.vis1km_high.94EINVEST.20kts-1007mb-136N-1045W.100pc.jpg

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_pac_5d0.png

What the computer models are showing… for what’s being referred to as Invest 94E

A broad area of disturbed weather is located a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small low embedded within this area has decreased since yesterday.

However, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development and a tropical depression will likely form within the next two or three days.

The disturbance is forecast to move generally westward for the next several days and then turn west-northwestward by the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

 

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

Western North Pacific

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1520.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/15W.KUJIRA/ir/geo/1km_bw/20200928.0950.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.15WKUJIRA.45kts-992mb-290N-1531E.100pc.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 15W (Kujira) 

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, upper air analysis reveals an improving characterized by increasing poleward outflow and robust equatorward outflow being offset by a broad, convergent upper low located to the southwest of the system.

Warm sea surface temperatures and low <10 knot wind shear remain conducive for continued development…establishing an overall favorable environment.

TS 15W is forecast to track north-northwestward through 12 hours with steady intensification. The system is expected to peak at 65 knots by 36 hours. After 48 hours, TS Kujira will weaken as it encounters increasing 25-30 knot wind shear, and tracks over cool sea surface temperatures.

 

 

>>> There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 98W, which is located approximately 380 NM east-southeast of Iwo To, Japan

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, environmental analysis indicates Invest 98W is experiencing low <15 knot wind shear, moderate equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models do not resolve invest 98W well, and therefore do not indicate the development of the system at this time…as the system tracks poleward.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the system to transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

 

South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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