CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 15E (Olaf)…located about 20 miles east-northeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 18W (Conson)…is located approximately 248 NM east of Da Nang, Vietnam
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)…is located approximately 116 NM southeast of Aparri, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 15E (Olaf)
EYE OF OLAF ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL AT SAN JOSE DEL CABO MEXICO…HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
According to the NHC Advisory 10…Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slight turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, and Olaf is forecast to continue moving toward the northwest on Friday. A turn toward the west is expected over the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move near or over the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few hours, and then move very near or over southern Baja California Sur tonight and on Friday. The hurricane will begin to move westward away from land late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is possible before the hurricane reaches the coast tonight. Weakening is expected on Friday after Olaf begins to interact with land. Further weakening is likely over the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).
>>> An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the southern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Subsequent gradual development of this system will be possible, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
Central north Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days
Tropical Cyclone 18W (Conson)
Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 17)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone Conson
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows a disorganized system that has improved slightly in structure over the past six hours.
The system is currently tracking westward in a marginally favorable environment with moderate wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and weak radial outflow aloft.
Tropical storm 18W is currently tracking westward under the influence of the subtropical ridge to the northeast. Around 48 hours, it will turn more west-northwestward as a mid latitude trough begins to deepen to the north, creating a weak steering environment.
The system is expected to make landfall over northern Vietnam roughly 100 NM south of Hanoi. The marginally favorable environment will allow slight intensification to a peak of
70 knots around 48 hours. Afterward, increasing wind shear and land interaction with the coast of Vietnam will weaken the system to 30 knots just before landfall at about 96 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)
Sustained 130 knot winds…with gusts to 160 knots (as of Warning Number 16)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 19W
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts a compact system with an eye-like feature that has weakened slightly over the past six hours.
Typhoon 19W is beginning a more northwestward track as it begins to round the western edge of the subtropical ridge. After 48 hours, the system will cross Taiwan as it tracks northward and eventually crests the subtropical ridge axis.After 96 hours, the system will turn north-northeastward on the poleward side of the subtropical ridge.
TY 19W will remain in a favorable environment for the early part of the forecast, sustaining it above 100 knots until about 48 hours, at which point land interaction with Taiwan will begin to weaken it. The system will weaken to 85 knots as it exits into the Taiwan strait around 72 hours. Afterwards, increasing wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures will further weaken the system to 70 knots by 120 hours.
>>> There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96W, which is located approximately 623 NM south-southeast of Kadena AB
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts flaring convection over an ill-defined low level circulation…in addition to a pocket of deep convection displaced to the south of the center, and an overall lack of convective organization.
Invest 96W is in a marginal environment characterized by warm sea surface temperatures offset by moderate (15-25 knot) wind shear, and weak outflow aloft.
Global models generally agree that invest 96W will dissipate as it interacts with STY 19W, with the exception of GFS, which depicts 96W tracking poleward of STY 19W and consolidating.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
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